Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007303 0.008234 0.009253 0.010452 0.011829 0.013364 0.015209
2024-10-06 0.005748 0.006988 0.008464 0.010360 0.012747 0.015671 0.019551
2024-10-13 0.005165 0.006605 0.008420 0.010898 0.014224 0.018582 0.024799
2024-10-20 0.004415 0.005868 0.007780 0.010515 0.014377 0.019713 0.027781
2024-10-27 0.003883 0.005332 0.007312 0.010258 0.014604 0.020897 0.030915
2024-11-03 0.003546 0.005015 0.007090 0.010294 0.015215 0.022658 0.035095
2024-11-10 0.003374 0.004906 0.007142 0.010718 0.016430 0.025445 0.041250
2024-11-17 0.003081 0.004586 0.006843 0.010562 0.016704 0.026760 0.045140
2024-11-24 0.002875 0.004376 0.006686 0.010602 0.017284 0.028622 0.050213
2024-12-01 0.002640 0.004098 0.006394 0.010385 0.017396 0.029678 0.053952
2024-12-08 0.002519 0.003990 0.006361 0.010593 0.018254 0.032137 0.060680
2024-12-15 0.002368 0.003819 0.006207 0.010573 0.018694 0.033873 0.066233
2024-12-22 0.002144 0.003514 0.005813 0.010107 0.018298 0.034047 0.068770
2024-12-29 0.002005 0.003345 0.005640 0.010030 0.018636 0.035708 0.074781
2025-01-05 0.001972 0.003356 0.005782 0.010547 0.020187 0.040009 0.087386
2025-01-12 0.001813 0.003129 0.005477 0.010179 0.019909 0.040455 0.091168
2025-01-19 0.001686 0.002951 0.005245 0.009930 0.019850 0.041358 0.096200
2025-01-26 0.001607 0.002855 0.005160 0.009965 0.020392 0.043661 0.105134
2025-02-02 0.001580 0.002854 0.005254 0.010374 0.021796 0.048126 0.120554
2025-02-09 0.001489 0.002725 0.005089 0.010223 0.021927 0.049604 0.128211
2025-02-16 0.001427 0.002647 0.005016 0.010262 0.022497 0.052224 0.139598
2025-02-23 0.001343 0.002520 0.004838 0.010053 0.022456 0.053300 0.146692
2025-03-02 0.001307 0.002485 0.004844 0.010254 0.023423 0.057108 0.162840